Oct 7, 2008

It's October 7th -- A Time Monks Update

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For context, see previous entries on the Time Monks forecast here and here.

According to the Time Monks, "it" has, indeed, occurred. They point to a number of factors one or all of which could be a trigger, but the cumulative effect will be a ripple effect that sees a period of long release and a lot of turmoil.

well, Igor informs me that we shifted over into release language sometime around 6:15 am UTC this morning.

We have 'pegged' several circumstances which were ongoing at the time of the shift. These are not necessarily proximate causes, but they do provide the flavor of the moment, and may be guides for the continuing release language that will wash over all of us these next few month.

Russia Buys Iceland 1) the major banks in Iceland had failed. The Icelandic government had rather foolishly, but out of necessity, guarantee *ALL* bank deposits. This had developed prior to this morning. What occurred this morning was the announcement that the banks in question had deposits that ran several times the Icelandic GDP. 1.a) Subsequently, *after* being informed that the EU will not/cannot help them, the Icelandic gov't has turned to Russia for assistance. Russia has agreed to provide the Icelandic gov't with necessary funds of sufficient amount to help them out 'for a few days'. The language around the Icelandic currency failure went from 'worry' into expressions of 'dire' and 'calamitous' very rapidly early this morning.

EU Splinters 2) a meeting in France this morning of the EU official 'finance ministers' was a dud. It was such a dud as to produce a sudden, precipitous change in language around the whole of the EU as a context within our modelspace. This single meeting may be the actual pivotal point for the EU as an organization of nation states. Basically what happened is that the EU politicians in the meeting agreed to take actions which are /were meaningless, such as a 'deposit guarantee' that is now raised, but still is far less than any of the member countries individual deposit guarantees. Thus effectively taking no action at all. Further it is rumored that the attendees of the meeting expressed agreement with the idea of *not* coordinating rate cuts with the Federal Reserve Bank of the USofA. This likely will be seen in the future as *the* moment that the EU began to only crumble back into Europe. (rather than the spectactular Irish vote to kick the EU elite in the crotch). BBC reportedly saying that the "EU is in the shitter...can someone please flush". Other reports have the attendees of the meeting actually running with their aides in tow to avoid having to face any press.

RBS Clearinghouse 'failing' 3) The Royal Bank of Scotland reportedly, this morning, begun seeking a 'recapitalization' so that they may continue their clearinghouse functions. The story coming out via rumors is that RBS is/has run into liquidity issues regarding their ability to handle transactions from other banks. This is also, according to rumor, affecting the currency trades globally. There is now some small substantiation that several of the governmental agencies approached have 'kicked the problem upstairs' as being beyond their ability to accept. The language within the articles and rumors of the RBS capitalization issues is decidedly in the release category.

France to guarantee deposits for its citizens/banks 4) yet another country within the EU collective has had to declare is own intention to guarantee is own banking struture and its citizens deposits separate from the EU. This is *potentially* another Iceland problem as the total insured deposits are rumored to be several times the GDP of France. Yet another nail in the EU coffin.

5) LIBOR rates are still screwed, and banks are still failing, globally, and pretty much any and all banks which got into the SIVs, CDOs or other 'specialty vehicles'. Note such headlines... and the timing... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6666.html

6) various military components are also expressing themselves. This includes Iran and airplanes as well as Israeli TeeVee and their open discussion of the 'attack on Iran' being 'vetoed' by TPTB due to fears of huge losses of American soldiers and mercenaries in Iraq should Iran retaliate.

I know reading about the government of Iceland facing bankruptcy set off my alarm bells, last night.

Home to just 320,000 people on a territory the size of Kentucky, Iceland has formidable international reach because of an outsized banking sector that set out with Viking confidence to conquer swaths of the British economy — from fashion retailers to top soccer teams.

The strategy gave Icelanders one of the world's highest per capita incomes. But now they are watching helplessly as their economy implodes — their currency losing almost half its value, and their heavily exposed banks collapsing under the weight of debts incurred by lending in the boom times.

"Everything is closed. We couldn't sell our stock or take money from the bank," said Johann Sigurdsson as he left a branch of Landsbanki in downtown Reykjavik.

. . .

A full-blown collapse of Iceland's financial system would send shock waves across Europe, given the heavy investment by Icelandic banks and companies across the continent.

Also, as discussed here, I think a lot of people have read the Oct. 7th prediction as if we were waiting a single dramatic event like 9/11. I think that perception is largely in the translation, as this has been much discussed on radio, and around the web. It's become sort of a telephone game, around the strong emotional cue of 9/11. It just never read that way to me, except for the possibility that an attack of some kind was one of many possibilities. It still is, as this thing snowballs; here and/or somewhere else. The way this thing has always read to me is as a cluster effect of primarily economic factors. (And most wars, including asymmetric ones are, at bottom, about economics.) So, here, Cliff attempts to address some of these impressions and clarify his own perspective.

Firstly there were many emails from people who, in their minds, heard 9/11 and disregarded what we are saying about the emotional tones. They were of the opiniion that 9/11 meant some form of attack, probably nuke-lar, and they were disappointed?!...

What we maintain, is that from this point forward, the release language grows, daily, and at intensity levels which are greater than 9/11. We are already seeing this. Go read some of the icelandic media, and the release language is clearly there to be seen. There are several millions of people globally already affected by the crumbling of the icelandic banking system/currency, and that will grow as the currency disease spreads about the planet over these next weeks and months.

We have shifted into release language. It is dominant now (marginally) and as the days progress, and bank after bank, country after country begin to topple as the currency dies beneath their power structure, the expressions of the release language will grow. By the time that we (the planet) reaches February 19th, we will all be totally sick of the release form of language.

One other big "what the huh?" from the Time Monks blog.

Anthrax "Emergency" Powers Declared by DHHS
This was read into the Federal Register Monday. Think about the timing for a minute and then read details:


ACTION: Notice.

. . .

Therefore, pursuant to section 319F-3(b) of the Act, I have determined there is a credible risk that the threat of exposure of B. anthracis and the resulting disease constitutes a public health emergency.

More: http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2008/E8-23547.htm

We're not sure what to make of this, but the timing is odd, near as we we can figure...

I don't even what to speculate as to what that's about.

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